美国.S. 经济增长温和 136000个工作岗位 in September, a gain that managed to help lower the unemployment rate to a new five-decade low of 3.5%. 但, there was something else in the data: Excluding government, business hiring in the past three months has slowed to an average of 119,每月1000万, 这是七年来表现最差的一次.

Question: Is the 工作 report a sign a recession is near?

Norm Miller，圣地亚哥大学

NO: Job growth continues to slow but we are not yet near a recession. One reason for job growth slowing is a mismatch of domestic existing skills with available 工作. 另一个原因是我们接近充分就业. The global slowdown is having some impact, along with unsuccessful 贸易 war negotiations. 美联储不应受到指责. We may still see a recession in a year or so, but there is still positive momentum in our economy.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma拿撒勒大学

NO: While recession risk has increased, the latest 工作 report is not a red flag. Manufacturers are struggling, but other firms are still expanding. 在近260家私营企业中, a majority were still adding 工作 rather than cutting back in September. 公司也没有减少员工的工作时间. Some of the slower job growth may reflect the severe difficulties firms are facing in filling open positions. With consumers holding the economy up, watch for any cracks in their confidence.

杰米·莫拉加，智力解决方案公司

NO上个月，美国政府宣布了.S. added more 工作 to the economy and the unemployment rate hit a 50-year low. Consumer spending continued to remain optimistic, especially with home and auto sales. The Fed is anticipated to make another interest rate cut at the end of the month. The economy could be showing some signs of slowing due to continued global uncertainty and the threat of ongoing 贸易 wars, 但它目前仍具有弹性.

鲍勃·劳奇，R.A. 劳赫 & 的同事

NO消费者信心依然强劲, employment and wages are up and while there are 贸易 war concerns, this economy would need a confluence of negative events to fall into recession. Low oil prices, coupled with low 利率 and strong consumer spending, bodes well. The next 12 months are solid albeit with an economy that is slowing. An interim agreement on 贸易 will remove uncertainty and boost the economy with GDP up 2.2020年2%.

克里斯·凡·高德，斯克里普斯健康中心

NO这种下降是令人鼓舞的, and while I don’t think this single indicator shows a recession is near, I’ve been predicting a recession by 2020/2021 for some time now. I do believe that businesses are slowing hiring and capital spending as a result of concerns about a broad slowdown in global economies, 尤其是欧洲和中国. 关税战争, impeachment talk and candidate proposals that would not be positive for businesses aren’t helping, 要么.

奥斯汀·纽德克尔牧师

本周不参加.

Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research

NO: 还没到那一步. 当失业率降到4%以下时, 经济周期已经成熟, 劳动力市场吃紧, 通货膨胀变得令人担忧. The Fed usually begins hiking 利率, eventually causing the economy to falter. Interest rates have remained at record lows for record length of time artificially boosting the U.S. economy, financial markets, and amplifying job growth. With record debt burdens, 利率 do not have to rise much to cause another recession.

Gary London，伦敦Moeder顾问公司

NO:不好的迹象. 但未必是迫在眉睫的衰退. The economy is slowing, but it is a slowdown that can be managed. 然而, there is no evident strategy to address inequities in the job market, the decrease in manufacturing and even service sector 工作. 而不是, 我们的税收计划很糟糕, 关税, 美联储过早地降低利率, all of which are all likely to contribute to this 滴, 滴, 滴放缓.

詹姆斯·汉密尔顿，加州大学圣地亚哥分校

NO: The lowest unemployment rate in half a century is not a recession, it is cause to celebrate. 因为失业人数太少了, we’re not going to see as many new people added to payrolls each month. The leading indicator to watch for the start of a recession is new claims for unemployment insurance. 这也接近历史低点. 美国.S. 不是在衰退吗.

大卫·伊利，圣地亚哥州立大学

NOGDP和就业增长已经放缓, the economy does not seem to be on the edge of a recession. 就业机会仍在不断增加. 非自愿兼职工人的数量, 平均每周工作时间, 时薪, and other indicators suggest that the labor market is still reasonably healthy. The probability of a downturn has increased, but based on current data, the U.S. will likely avoid a recession over the next twelve months.

道格拉斯威尔逊公司的Michele Vives

NO: Much of this slowdown has been reported to be caused by a limited number of available employees. 失业率平均为3%.5%到3%.7 percent, it’s likely the labor market that is slowing as it’s running out of skilled labor. 也, 随着人们对关税的担忧日益加剧, it’s no surprise that employers are concerned about the direction of the economy, therefore slowing down the development of new positions.

菲尔·布莱尔，人力资源

NO衰退是一个很重的词. 有人认为经济会从悬崖上跌落. Yes will are getting lots of mixed messages about consumer confidence, 利率, 房屋销售和许多其他经济指标. 但对我来说，招聘是值得关注的主要晴雨表. 是的，9月份招聘人数为136人，表现疲软,000 工作 but July and August were at the same time adjusted up by 45,000 工作 and this is on top of the millions of American 工作 added over the last ten years. Our national unemployment rate fell to a new low not seen since 1969.

Alan Gin，圣地亚哥大学

NO但这是经济正在放缓的一个迹象. The labor market is still solid with a low unemployment rate. So it is unlikely that the economy would swing from that to a full-blown recession. 但 there are signs of weakness beyond the slow job growth. 其中包括工资下降, 制造业疲软, 以及与中国持续贸易战的影响. The good news is that this gives the Federal Reserve some room to further cut 利率.